AkashicMassachusetts — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 95%; raw Republican YES price 5%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Maura HealeyDIncumbentPresumptive |
| Michael MinogueR |
| Brian ShortsleeveR |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Maura Healey (D) is running for re-election and is effectively unopposed for the Democratic nomination (presumptive). Primary is September 1, 2026 (not yet held). On the GOP side, the April state convention endorsed Michael Minogue (~70%+) and qualified both Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve for the ballot while eliminating earlier frontrunner Mike Kennealy; Minogue is the frontrunner but the primary is still contested. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | HealeyD | D+29 |
| 2018 | Baker And PolitoR | R+18 |
| 2014 | Charlie BakerR | R+2 |
| 2010 | Deval PatrickD | D+6 |
| 2006 | Deval PatrickD | D+20 |
| 2002 | Mitt RomneyR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 597 LV | Healey 53·Kennealy 32 | D+21 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 599 LV | Healey 52·Minogue 32 | D+20 |
| University of New Hampshire | Apr 16–20 | 603 LV | Healey 51·Shortsleeve 29 | D+22 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →