AkashicMaryland — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 93%; raw Republican YES price 4%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Wes MooreDIncumbentNominee |
| Dan CoxRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Wes Moore (D) is running for a second term and won renomination with ~88%. Republican Dan Cox won the GOP primary (over Ed Hale and others), setting up a rematch of 2022. A Green Party candidate (Andy Ellis) has been reported for the general ballot but is in secondary reporting only, so excluded from the confirmed roster. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →