AkashicMaine — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Hannah PingreeDNominee |
| Bobby CharlesRNominee |
| Rick BennettIndependent |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Janet Mills (D) is term-limited. Both primaries used ranked-choice voting (resolved by June 19); Pingree beat Nirav Shah, Charles beat Benjamin Midgley. Independent Rick Bennett (a longtime Republican who left the party) is a confirmed general-election candidate. The November general uses plurality, not RCV. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Janet T MillsD | D+13 |
| 2018 | Janet T MillsD | D+8 |
| 2014 | Paul LePageR | R+5 |
| 2010 | Paul LePageR | R+2 |
| 2006 | John BaldacciD | D+8 |
| 2002 | John BaldacciD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →