AkashicMichigan — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 84%; raw Republican YES price 17%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Jocelyn BensonDNominee |
| John JamesRNominee |
| Chris SwansonD |
| Mike CoxR |
| Perry JohnsonR |
Declared candidates. Open seat; Gov. Whitmer term-limited. SoS Jocelyn Benson won the Democratic primary with over 83% over Chris Swanson; Rep. John James (MI-10) won the GOP primary with roughly half the vote over Perry Johnson. Mike Duggan's independent bid ended May 21, 2026. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Gretchen WhitmerD | D+10 |
| 2018 | Gretchen WhitmerD | D+10 |
| 2014 | Rick SnyderR | R+4 |
| 2010 | Rick SnyderR | R+18 |
| 2006 | Jennifer GranholmD | D+14 |
| 2002 | Jennifer GranholmD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →