AkashicMinnesota — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is running for governor.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 3%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Amy KlobucharDNominee |
| Lisa DemuthRNominee |
| Steve YoungGreenNominee |
| Kendall QuallsR |
| Mike LindellR |
Declared candidates. Open seat: Walz ended his campaign in January 2026. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won the Aug 11 DFL primary with 89.7%; House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the GOP primary with 43.4% over Mike Lindell (32.5%) and Kendall Qualls (21.4%). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tim WalzD | D+8 |
| 2018 | Tim Walz And Peggy FlanaganD | D+11 |
| 2014 | Mark DaytonD | D+6 |
| 2010 | Mark DaytonD | even |
| 2006 | Tim PawlentyR | R+1 |
| 2002 | Tim PawlentyR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →