AkashicNevada — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 55%; raw Republican YES price 46%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Joe LombardoRIncumbentNominee |
| Aaron FordDNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), elected 2022, is eligible for a second term and won his primary (~91%). Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford won the Democratic primary (~64%) over Alexis Hill. Widely rated the most competitive 2026 governor's race with a GOP incumbent; Ford would be Nevada's first Black governor. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joe LombardoR | R+2 |
| 2018 | Steve SisolakD | D+4 |
| 2014 | Brian SandovalR | R+47 |
| 2010 | Brian SandovalR | R+12 |
| 2006 | Jim GibbonsR | R+4 |
| 2002 | Kenny GuinnR | R+46 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →