AkashicNew York — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Kathy HochulDIncumbentNominee |
| Bruce BlakemanRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is running for a second full term and was unopposed in the June 23 2026 Democratic primary (Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado suspended his challenge in Feb 2026). Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman won the Republican nomination uncontested after Rep. Elise Stefanik withdrew (Dec 2025) and Rep. Mike Lawler opted to run for the House; Blakeman is Trump-endorsed and also holds the Conservative Party line. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kathy C HochulD | D+6 |
| 2018 | Andrew M CuomoD | D+26 |
| 2014 | Andrew CuomoD | D+14 |
| 2010 | Andrew CuomoD | D+30 |
| 2006 | Eliot SpitzerD | D+38 |
| 2002 | George PatakiR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | Mar 23–26 | 804 RV | Hochul 47·Blakeman 34 | D+13 |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | Mar 24–26 | 500 RV | Hochul 55·Blakeman 40 | D+15 |
| Siena College | Jun 23–26, 2025 | 800 RV | Hochul 44·Blakeman 19 | D+25 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →