AkashicOhio — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 46%; raw Republican YES price 56%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Vivek RamaswamyRNominee |
| Amy ActonDNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Vivek Ramaswamy won the Republican primary (Trump-endorsed; only nominal opposition). Former Ohio Dept. of Health director Amy Acton won the Democratic primary unopposed. Earlier-speculated Democrats Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown did not run. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mike DewineR | R+25 |
| 2018 | Mike Dewine And Jon HustedR | R+4 |
| 2014 | John KasichR | R+31 |
| 2010 | John KasichR | R+2 |
| 2006 | Ted StricklandD | D+24 |
| 2002 | Bob TaftR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | Ramaswamy 48·Acton 47 | R+1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | Ramaswamy 48·Acton 47 | R+1 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 413 LV | Ramaswamy 49·Acton 44 | R+5 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 413 LV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →