AkashicOregon — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 86%; raw Republican YES price 15%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Tina KotekDIncumbentNominee |
| Christine DrazanRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is seeking a second term and won the Democratic primary (~84%). Christine Drazan, the 2022 GOP nominee, won the Republican primary (~41%) over Ed Diehl and Chris Dudley, setting up a 2022 rematch (Oregon's first gubernatorial rematch since 1978). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tina KotekD | D+3 |
| 2018 | Kate BrownD | D+6 |
| 2014 | John KitzhaberD | D+6 |
| 2010 | John KitzhaberD | D+2 |
| 2006 | Ted KulongoskiD | D+8 |
| 2002 | Ted KulongoskiD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →