AkashicPennsylvania — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 95%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Josh ShapiroDIncumbentNominee |
| Stacy GarrityRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is seeking a second term and won the Democratic primary unopposed. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary unopposed and would be Pennsylvania's first female governor. Minor-party general-election names (e.g., Libertarian) were not confirmed against an authoritative source and are omitted. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joshua D ShapiroD | D+15 |
| 2018 | Thomas W WolfD | D+17 |
| 2014 | Tom WolfD | D+10 |
| 2010 | Tom CorbettR | R+9 |
| 2006 | Ed RendellD | D+21 |
| 2002 | Ed RendellD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR | Mar 18–29 | 700 LV | Shapiro 58·Garrity 36 | D+22 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →