AkashicRhode Island — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 92%; raw Republican YES price 4%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Dan McKeeDIncumbent |
| Helena FoulkesD |
| Ken BlockIndependent |
Declared candidates. Not an open seat: incumbent Gov. Dan McKee (D) is running for a second full term, but he faces a serious, genuinely contested Democratic primary against Helena Foulkes (former CVS executive, 2022 candidate), who leads in polling and won the state party endorsement over McKee. Both are 'candidate' (not presumptive). Ken Block is a notable independent. Primary moved from Sept 8 to Wednesday Sept 9 2026 due to the Labor Day setup crunch; not yet held. GOP field has no major candidate of note. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Daniel J McKeeD | D+19 |
| 2018 | Gina M RaimondoD | D+16 |
| 2014 | Gina RaimondoD | D+4 |
| 2010 | Lincoln Chafee | — |
| 2006 | Donald CarcieriR | R+2 |
| 2002 | Donald CarcieriR | R+10 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →