AkashicTennessee — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 8%; raw Republican YES price 91%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Marsha BlackburnRNominee |
| Jerri GreenDNominee |
| Lauren PinkstonIndependentNominee |
| John RoseR |
Declared candidates. Open seat; Gov. Bill Lee term-limited. Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the Aug. 6 GOP primary with ~43% over Rep. John Rose (~33%); Memphis councilmember Jerri Green won the Dem primary with 69.0%. Either winner would be Tennessee's first female governor. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →