Tennessee — Governor
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 92% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Marsha BlackburnRPresumptive |
| John RoseR |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) is term-limited. U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is the clear front-runner / presumptive GOP nominee (leads polls by 30+ points); U.S. Rep. John Rose is the main self-funding challenger. Aug 6 2026 primary not yet held. The Democratic field is contested with no clear favorite in this strongly Republican state (declared Democrats include Jerri Green and Carnita Atwater); no presumptive D nominee identified. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TN state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Bill LeeR | R+21 |
| 2014 | Bill HaslamR | R+48 |
| 2010 | Bill HaslamR | R+32 |
| 2006 | Phil BredesenD | D+39 |
| 2002 | Phil BredesenD | D+3 |
| 1998 | Don SundquistR | R+39 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →