AkashicWisconsin — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 56%; raw Republican YES price 45%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| David CrowleyDNominee |
| Tom TiffanyRNominee |
| Mandela BarnesD |
| Sara RodriguezD |
| Kelda RoysD |
Declared candidates. Open seat — Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking a third term. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (Evers-endorsed) beat Francesca Hong 39.8%-39.3% (~3,800 votes) in the Aug 11 primary; Rep. Tom Tiffany (WI-07, Trump-endorsed) won the GOP primary with 95.3%. First post-primary poll: Crowley 48-44. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tony EversD | D+3 |
| 2018 | Tony EversD | D+1 |
| 2014 | Scott WalkerR | R+6 |
| 2010 | Scott WalkerR | R+6 |
| 2006 | Jim DoyleD | D+7 |
| 2002 | Jim DoyleD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Communications | Aug 12–13 | — LV | Crowley 48·Tiffany 44 | D+4 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →