AkashicWyoming — Governor
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 6%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Eric BarlowRNominee |
| Kenneth CasnerDNominee |
| Rebecca BextelConstitutionNominee |
| Megan DegenfelderRPresumptive |
| Brent BienR |
Declared candidates. Open seat — Gov. Mark Gordon term-limited. Eric Barlow won the GOP primary 45.1% over Megan Degenfelder; Kenneth Casner unopposed for the Democrats. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mark GordonR | R+62 |
| 2018 | Mark GordonR | R+40 |
| 2014 | Matt MeadR | R+32 |
| 2010 | Matt MeadR | R+43 |
| 2006 | Dave FreudenthalD | D+40 |
| 2002 | Dave FreudenthalD | D+2 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →