AK-AL — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 85% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 10-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Matt SchultzD | |
| Nick Begich IIIRIncumbent | not yet filing |
| John WilliamsD | not yet filing |
| Yaquelin ReynosoD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Alaska uses a single nonpartisan top-four primary (Aug 18); the top four advance to a ranked-choice general. Primary not yet held as of 2026-06-25, so field is the declared candidate pool. Incumbent Nick Begich III (R) won the seat in 2024, defeating then-incumbent Mary Peltola. Several minor independent/Libertarian filers (e.g., Bill Hill, Eddie Goldfarb) excluded as non-major; listed Democrats are the most active challengers. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AK-AL place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | Even |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+9 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →