AL-01 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 96% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jerry CarlR | |
| Austin SidwellR | |
| Clyde JonesD | |
| John MillsR | |
| Lucas BurgerR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Barry Moore (R) is the 2026 GOP nominee for U.S. Senate (Tuberville seat). District falls under Alabama's new congressional map (SB-driven redraw allowed after SCOTUS lifted VRA restrictions May 2026; map upheld by SCOTUS June 2). A special primary is set for Aug 11, 2026 with NO runoff (highest vote-getter advances). The May 19 primary (won on the GOP side by Jerry Carl) was run under the old map and reset for the redrawn district. Democrat Clyde Jones is unopposed in the special primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AL-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+57 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+84 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+29 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+96 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →