AkashicCA-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 3%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Mike McGuireDNominee | |
| James GallagherRIncumbentNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Longtime incumbent Doug LaMalfa (R) died Jan 6, 2026. James Gallagher (R) won the June 2 special election outright to serve the remainder of LaMalfa's term and is now the seated incumbent. In the concurrent regular top-two primary on the redrawn (post-Prop 50) lines, Gallagher (R, ~42%) and McGuire (D, ~42%) advanced to the Nov general for the full term. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →