CA-11 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Scott WienerDNominee | |
| Connie ChanDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: longtime incumbent Nancy Pelosi (D) is retiring and not seeking re-election. Democrat-vs-Democrat general between San Francisco supervisor Connie Chan and state senator Scott Wiener. Under the state’s top-two primary, the two highest finishers advance regardless of party — here both are of the same party. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CA-11 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+62 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+68 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+46 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+48 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+35 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →