CO-04 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Trump+18 on the presidential line — the reddest Colorado seat — but incumbent Lauren Boebert (R) won 2024 by only 11.6, ~7 pts behind Trump, the weakest GOP showing relative to district lean of any seat in the state. Democratic House-primary participation up 18 pts since 2022. Toughest terrain, weakest incumbent: a narrow D tilt.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 64% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 22-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Eileen LaubacherD | |
| Lauren BoebertRIncumbent |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Lauren Boebert (R) seeking re-election (unopposed in GOP primary) in safe-R Eastern Plains seat. Eileen Laubacher is the Democratic candidate (a write-in, Jenna Preston, also filed on the D side). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →