CO-05 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Colorado Springs, Trump+9. Freshman Jeff Crank (R) OUTran Trump, winning the open seat by 14, so the D case rests on the primary signal (49% Democratic House-primary share, the largest 2024→2026 swing of the reaches) rather than incumbent weakness. The least-confident of the four Colorado tilts.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 73% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 31-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jeff CrankRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Jessica KillinD | |
| Joe ReaganD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Colorado Springs/El Paso County. Incumbent Jeff Crank (R, won 2024 after Doug Lamborn retired) running, unopposed in GOP primary. Colorado primary is June 30, 2026 (NOT yet held as of June 25, 5 days out). Contested 2-person Democratic primary: Jessica Killin (DCCC 'Red to Blue', won assembly top line, out-raised incumbent) is the clear frontrunner over Joe Reagan, but primary not held so both 'candidate'. Historically red seat being targeted. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+18 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →