CO-08 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
The independent commission's designed tossup: Trump+1.8, and freshman Gabe Evans (R) won by 0.7 in 2024. The largest Democratic primary swing in the state (+22.5 pts since 2022, +18.9 since 2024). The party's most plausible Colorado pickup — the easiest of the four.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 83% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Gabe EvansRIncumbent | |
| Manny RutinelD | |
| Shannon BirdD | |
| Evan MunsingD | |
| Adam DeRitoR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Gabe Evans (R, won 2024 by ~2,500 votes) seeking re-election in the marquee Colorado toss-up seat (north Denver suburbs/Adams-Weld). Evans faces minor GOP primary challenge (Adam DeRito). Competitive Democratic primary: state Rep. Manny Rutinel, former state Rep. Shannon Bird, and veteran Evan Munsing. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO-08 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →