CT-01 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Luke BroninD | |
| John LarsonDIncumbent | |
| Jillian GilchrestD | |
| Ruth FortuneD | |
| Amy ChaiR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Solid D in general, but a competitive four-way Democratic primary: incumbent John Larson is running for re-election yet lost the state party endorsement at the May convention to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin; state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and Ruth Fortune also qualified for the ballot. Amy Chai is the presumptive Republican. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CT-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+25 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+22 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+22 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →