AkashicCT-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 7%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Luke BroninDNominee | |
| Amy ChaiRNominee | not yet filing |
| John LarsonDIncumbent | |
| Jillian GilchrestD | |
| Ruth FortuneD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Solid D in general, but a competitive four-way Democratic primary: incumbent John Larson is running for re-election yet lost the state party endorsement at the May convention to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin; state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest and Ruth Fortune also qualified for the ballot. Amy Chai is the presumptive Republican. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CT-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+25 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+22 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →