AkashicFL-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 13%; raw Republican YES price 88%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Austin RogersRNominee | |
| Amanda GreenDNominee | |
| Keith GrossR | |
| Evan PowerR | |
| Nic ZatesloD | |
| Jim NortonR |
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+23 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+20 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+98 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+37 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →