FL-09 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 77% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 35-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Darren SotoDIncumbent | |
| Justin StoryR | |
| Jorge MalavetR | |
| Marcus CarterR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Soto is the presumptive Democratic nominee and is staying in FL-09 despite the 2026 mid-decade redistricting making the seat more Republican-leaning (Trump +58% on the new lines). Contested GOP primary (also Thomas Chalifoux, Howard Rance); nominee undetermined until Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-09 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+12 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+16 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+11 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →