AkashicFL-11 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 15%; raw Republican YES price 83%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| James PericolaDNominee |
| Carey BakerR |
| Joe StradaR |
| Nizam RazackR |
| Dan WilliamsD |
| Ralph GrovesLibertarian |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Daniel Webster (R) withdrew from the race on April 28, 2026 (retiring). Crowded GOP primary (also Ivette Palomo, Tim Wilkins; Anthony Sabatini withdrew) in a strongly Republican seat; nominee undetermined until Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-11 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →