FL-14 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 58%; raw Republican YES price 41%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Kathy CastorDIncumbentNominee | |
| Mike BeltranRNominee | not yet filing |
| Robert RochfordR | |
| Kevin SteeleR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Tampa/Hillsborough. Incumbent Kathy Castor (D) running for re-election, unopposed/dominant in the Democratic primary (presumptive D nominee). REDISTRICTING NOTE: Florida's mid-decade redistricting (DeSantis-backed map signed May 2026) significantly redrew FL-14 from a safe Castor seat to ~Trump+10, making it a top GOP flip target. Florida primary is Aug 18, 2026 (NOT yet held); qualifying closed mid-June so field is locked but no votes cast. GOP primary is genuinely contested with ~8 candidates and NO settled nominee: Kevin Steele is the most-reported frontrunner (money + establishment endorsements); state Rep. Mike Beltran and 2024 GOP nominee Robert 'Rocky' Rochford are other notable contenders (also Bea Valenti, Dan Weldon, Shay Williams, Gavriel Soriano, Erik Mishiyev). All R listed as 'candidate'. GOP nominee uncertain pending Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-14 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+15 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+14 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+21 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →