FL-14 — U.S. House

Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Tampa/Hillsborough. Incumbent Kathy Castor (D) running for re-election, unopposed/dominant in the Democratic primary (presumptive D nominee). REDISTRICTING NOTE: Florida's mid-decade redistricting (DeSantis-backed map signed May 2026) significantly redrew FL-14 from a safe Castor seat to ~Trump+10, making it a top GOP flip target. Florida primary is Aug 18, 2026 (NOT yet held); qualifying closed mid-June so field is locked but no votes cast. GOP primary is genuinely contested with ~8 candidates and NO settled nominee: Kevin Steele is the most-reported frontrunner (money + establishment endorsements); state Rep. Mike Beltran and 2024 GOP nominee Robert 'Rocky' Rochford are other notable contenders (also Bea Valenti, Dan Weldon, Shay Williams, Gavriel Soriano, Erik Mishiyev). All R listed as 'candidate'. GOP nominee uncertain pending Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-14 place page.

Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.