FL-20 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Debbie Wasserman SchultzD | |
| Elijah ManleyD | |
| Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickD | |
| Dale HolnessD | |
| Luther CampbellD | |
| Brent AndersenR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat / vacancy: prior incumbent Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned in April 2026 amid legal/ethics challenges, then re-launched a campaign to reclaim the seat (so she is a candidate but not the sitting incumbent). The 2026 mid-decade redistricting also pushed FL-25 incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz into this safely-Democratic, majority-Black Broward seat, creating a 7-way Democratic primary; nominee undetermined until Aug 18. No candidate is the sitting representative of FL-20. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-20 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+45 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+57 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+61 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+63 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →