FL-24 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 97% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Shevrin JonesD |
| Oliver GilbertD |
| Kendrick Meek Jr.D |
| Jean MonestimeD |
| Mayonna Te BrownR |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Frederica Wilson (D) announced in May 2026 she would not seek another term. Crowded Democratic primary (also Marshall Davis Sr., Rudy Moise, Roderick Vereen) in a safely Democratic Miami-Dade seat; Democratic nominee undetermined until Aug 18. Mayonna Te Brown is the presumptive GOP nominee. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-24 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+55 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2016 | — | — |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+76 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →