AkashicFL-25 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 61%; raw Republican YES price 37%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jared MoskowitzDNominee | |
| Scott SingerRNominee | |
| Raven HarrisonR | |
| George MoraitisR | |
| Joseph KaufmanR | |
| Dan FranzeseR |
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-25 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →