FL-25 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 63% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 21-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jared MoskowitzD | |
| Scott SingerR | |
| Raven HarrisonR | |
| George MoraitisR | |
| Joseph KaufmanR | |
| Dan FranzeseR | |
| Oliver LarkinD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Redistricting reshuffle: the 2026 map dismantled the old (Democratic) FL-25 and built a new, Republican-leaning coastal FL-25 from Delray Beach to Miami Beach. Its prior incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) is running in FL-20; FL-23 incumbent Jared Moskowitz (D) is now running here. No candidate is the sitting representative of FL-25, so incumbent=false for all; treated as open. Crowded GOP primary; nominees undetermined until Aug 18. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-25 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →