AkashicFL-26 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 16%; raw Republican YES price 85%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Mario Díaz-BalartRIncumbentNominee | |
| Nicole LocklinDNominee | |
| Deborah Ann Meidinger HoseyIndependent | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Diaz-Balart (presumptive GOP nominee) vs. Nicole Locklin (presumptive Democratic nominee) plus an independent. FL primary not yet held (Aug 18, 2026). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-26 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+42 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+42 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →