AkashicHI-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 95%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ed CaseDIncumbentNominee | |
| Adriel LamRNominee | not yet filing |
| Jordan ConleyGreenNominee | not yet filing |
| Nathan BerningIndependentNominee | not yet filing |
| Jarrett KeohokaloleD | |
| Della Au BelattiD | |
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the HI-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+47 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+44 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+50 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+49 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+4 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →