IL-04 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 94% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Patty GarciaDNominee | |
| Lupe CastilloRNominee | not yet filing |
| Ed HersheyWorking Class Party | not yet filing |
| Chris GettyIndependent | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Democrat Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia retired (announced he would not seek re-election, citing health, on the last filing day in Nov 2025). Patty Garcia (D, his former chief of staff, no relation) won the March 17 Democratic primary unopposed; faces Republican Lupe Castillo in this safe-D Chicago Southwest Side / heavily Latino district. Working Class Party candidate Ed Hershey and independent Chris Getty have qualified for the ballot (Getty had no signature challenges). Two other independents, Mayra Macias and Byron Sigcho-Lopez (a Chicago alderman), are facing petition-signature challenges and may be removed from the ballot (as of late June 2026 they were short on valid signatures and racing affidavit deadlines); independent Lindsay Church dropped out in May 2026. Macias/Sigcho-Lopez excluded here pending resolution of their challenges. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IL-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+40 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+40 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+68 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+73 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+56 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →