KS-04 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 93% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ron EstesRIncumbent | |
| Katy TyndellD | |
| Chris CarmichaelD | |
| Michael GaynorR | not yet filing |
| Frank McCollumR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Ron Estes (R) running for re-election; faces challengers in the GOP primary while several Democrats compete for their nomination (most prominent listed). Kansas primary is Aug 4, 2026 (NOT yet held), so nominees are not final. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the KS-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+30 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+27 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →