AkashicLA-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 7%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Blake MiguezR | |
| Michael EcholsR | |
| Rick EdmondsR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: incumbent Julia Letlow (R) is running for U.S. Senate (announced Jan 20, 2026), not for re-election. Louisiana uses an OPEN all-party primary on Nov 3, 2026 (runoff Dec 12) under the new 2026 map (SB 121); the closed primary was suspended. Candidate qualifying is Aug 5-7, 2026, so the field is unsettled; several Republicans (and Democrats) had filed under the prior plan. Listed are prominent declared Republicans; treat as provisional pending re-qualification. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the LA-05 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →