ME-02 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 64% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Paul LePageRNominee | |
| Matthew DunlapDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Jared Golden (D) announced Nov 5, 2025 he will NOT seek re-election, opening this R-leaning northern/rural Maine seat. Maine primary was June 9, 2026 (held). Paul LePage (former GOP Governor) won the GOP primary unopposed. Democratic primary went to ranked-choice runoff (no candidate hit 50%); Matthew Dunlap (Maine State Auditor) defeated Joe Baldacci in the final RCV round 52.5%-47.5%. Field also included Jordan Wood and Paige Loud. Note 'Matthew Dunlap' (sometimes 'Matt Dunlap'). The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the ME-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+5 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →