AkashicMO-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 24%; raw Republican YES price 75%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ann WagnerRIncumbentNominee | |
| Fred WellmanDNominee | |
| Brandon Coulter DaughertyLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
| Matthew GrantR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Suburban St. Louis. Incumbent Ann Wagner (R), 7 terms, IS running for re-election (NOT retiring, NOT running for Senate/Gov) — she is the presumptive GOP nominee with only a minor primary challenger (Matthew Grant). Missouri primary is Aug 4, 2026 (not yet held). Fred Wellman (D, Army veteran, former Lincoln Project exec dir, formal name Frederick Wellman) is the clear Democratic fundraising frontrunner over a contested field (Chuck Summers, Joan VonDras, Timothy Bilash). DCCC 'Districts in Play' target. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MO-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →