MO-02 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 76% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 7-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ann WagnerRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Fred WellmanDPresumptive | |
| Matthew GrantR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Suburban St. Louis. Incumbent Ann Wagner (R), 7 terms, IS running for re-election (NOT retiring, NOT running for Senate/Gov) — she is the presumptive GOP nominee with only a minor primary challenger (Matthew Grant). Missouri primary is Aug 4, 2026 (not yet held). Fred Wellman (D, Army veteran, former Lincoln Project exec dir, formal name Frederick Wellman) is the clear Democratic fundraising frontrunner over a contested field (Chuck Summers, Joan VonDras, Timothy Bilash). DCCC 'Districts in Play' target. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MO-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →