AkashicNC-01 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 57%; raw Republican YES price 44%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Don DavisDIncumbentNominee | |
| Laurie BuckhoutRNominee | |
| Tom BaileyLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Rematch of 2024. Davis's Democratic primary was canceled (unopposed); Buckhout won a five-way Republican primary (39.4%) over Asa Buck. NC SBE certified ballot: Davis (D), Buckhout (R), Bailey (LIB). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NC-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+2 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+40 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+40 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →