AkashicNC-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 12%; raw Republican YES price 86%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Virginia FoxxRIncumbentNominee | |
| Chuck HubbardDNominee | |
| Robert LuffmanLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Foxx won a contested GOP primary; Hubbard won the Democratic primary (over Kyah Creekmore). Luffman (filed Robert B. Luffman, LIB) direct to general. An independent (David Clayton) had been mentioned but withdrew and is not on the NC SBE ballot list. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NC-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+36 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →