NH-01 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 88% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Maura SullivanD | |
| Stefany ShaheenD | |
| Hollie NoveletskyR | |
| Carleigh BeriontD | |
| Heath HowardD | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Chris Pappas (D) is running for the U.S. Senate. Primary Sept 8, 2026 (not yet held), so candidates are contenders, not nominees. Crowded Democratic field; Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen are leading contenders (Beriont, Howard, others also running). Hollie Noveletsky leads the Republican field. Competitive southeastern NH seat (Manchester/Seacoast). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NH-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+5 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →