AkashicNJ-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win71%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 19%; raw Republican YES price 80%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jeff Van DrewRIncumbentNominee | |
| Zack MullockDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. South Jersey. Incumbent Jeff Van Drew (R) running, won GOP primary. NJ primary was June 2, 2026 (held). Zack Mullock (Cape May Mayor) won the Democratic primary (~41%) over Tim Alexander, Bayly Winder, Terri Reese, and Bill Finn. Note capitalization 'Van Drew'. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NJ-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+19 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+8 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →