AkashicNY-11 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 11%; raw Republican YES price 90%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Nicole MalliotakisRIncumbentNominee | |
| Michael DeCillisDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Staten Island + south Brooklyn; only GOP-held NYC seat (Supreme Court blocked a Democratic redraw in March 2026). NY primary was June 23, 2026 (held, 2 days before audit). Incumbent Nicole Malliotakis (R) running, won GOP primary (also holds Conservative Party line). Michael DeCillis (D, former NYPD officer/9-11 first responder) won the Democratic primary June 23. Rated Likely/Solid R (~R+10). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NY-11 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →