AkashicNY-13 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 96%; raw Republican YES price 3%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Darializa Avila ChevalierDNominee | |
| Jomo M. WilliamsRNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Democrat Adriano Espaillat LOST the Democratic primary to DSA community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier (Mamdani-backed); Espaillat is therefore excluded. Avila Chevalier faces Republican Jomo M. Williams. Not an open seat (incumbent ran and was defeated). Called June 24. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NY-13 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →