OH-09 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 70% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is more confident — a 12-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Marcy KapturDIncumbentNominee | |
| Derek MerrinRNominee | |
| Matthew AlthausLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Marquee competitive race. Toledo-based seat redrawn mid-decade to favor Republicans (Trump would have carried it by ~11 pts), but Kaptur (incumbent, re-elected 48.3% in 2024) is seeking re-election. Merrin, the 2024 GOP nominee, won the Republican primary in a rematch; Althaus won the Libertarian primary. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH-09 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+37 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+36 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →