AkashicOK-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 2%; raw Republican YES price 94%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Josh BrecheenRIncumbent | |
| Brandon WadeD | not yet filing |
| Ronnie HopkinsIndependent | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Josh Brecheen (R) won the June 16 GOP primary (~79%); Brandon Wade is the Democratic nominee and Ronnie Hopkins runs as an independent. Oklahoma primary held June 16, 2026. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OK-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+49 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+53 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+35 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+47 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+45 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →