AkashicPA-07 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 77%; raw Republican YES price 24%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Ryan MackenzieRIncumbentNominee | |
| Bob BrooksDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Lehigh Valley swing district. Incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie faces Bob Brooks (D), president of the PA Professional Fire Fighters Association, who won a contested May 19 primary over Ryan Crosswell, Lamont McClure, and Carol Obando-Derstine. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the PA-07 place page.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →