AkashicSC-01 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 31%; raw Republican YES price 69%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Nancy LacoreDNominee | |
| Jenny Costa HoneycuttRNominee | |
| Bill ReesideLibertarianNominee | not yet filing |
| Margo EllisAllianceNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Nancy Mace (R) is not running (running for governor). Primary held June 9 with runoffs June 23: Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) defeated Mark Smith ~54-46 in the GOP runoff; Nancy Lacore (D, former Navy admiral) won the Democratic runoff. Sets up an all-female general (Honeycutt vs. Lacore) plus Libertarian and Alliance nominees. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the SC-01 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →