AkashicTX-02 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 12%; raw Republican YES price 86%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Shaun FinnieDNominee | |
| Steve TothRNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open in the sense that no incumbent advanced: Republican incumbent Dan Crenshaw was defeated in the March 3 primary by state Rep. Steve Toth. Crenshaw was the first U.S. House member to lose renomination in the 2026 cycle. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX-02 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →