AkashicTX-09 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win96%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 17%; raw Republican YES price 80%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Alex MealerRNominee | |
| Leticia GutierrezDNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat. After 2025 mid-decade redistricting the 9th was redrawn; Democratic incumbent Al Green relocated to run in the 18th. Alex Mealer (R) won the May 26 GOP runoff over Briscoe Cain. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX-09 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+100 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+53 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+54 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+89 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+61 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD | D+91 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races → · The certified U.S. House record →