TX-23 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 70% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 12-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Brandon HerreraRNominee | |
| Katy Padilla StoutDNominee |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Large West Texas border district (San Antonio to El Paso). OPEN SEAT: incumbent Tony Gonzales (R) finished 2nd in the March 3 primary, then suspended his campaign (admitted affair) and RESIGNED from Congress effective April 14, 2026 — he is gone and not on the ballot. The scheduled May 26 GOP runoff was canceled; Brandon Herrera (R, gun-rights activist/YouTuber) became the GOP nominee by default. Katy Padilla Stout (D) won the Democratic primary outright March 3 (~52%). Majority-Hispanic swing district, now more competitive after the GOP turmoil. (Coded open_seat=true because the incumbent resigned and is not on the November ballot.) The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX-23 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+17 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | Even |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+1 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →