TX-32 — U.S. House
The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 76% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is less confident — a 8-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jace YarbroughRNominee | |
| Dan BarriosDNominee | |
| Charles HarperIndependentNominee | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat: the 32nd was radically redrawn (from D+22 to R+17); its Democratic incumbent Julie Johnson ran in the 33rd. Dan Barrios (D) and Jace Yarbrough (R, May 26 runoff winner) are the major nominees; independent Charles Harper is also on the ballot. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the TX-32 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+23 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+31 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+6 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+71 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+26 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →